Sains Malaysiana 39(4)(2010): 533–542
Trends in Peninsular Malaysia
Rainfall Data During the Southwest Monsoon and Northeast Monsoon Seasons: 1975–2004
(Trend
Hujan di Semenanjung Malaysia Ketika Monsun Barat Daya dan Monsun Timur Laut:
1975–2004)
Jamaludin Suhaila*
Mathematics Department, Faculty of
Science
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310,
Skudai, Johor, Malaysia
Sayang Mohd Deni
Center of Statistical Studies
Faculty of Information Technology and
Quantitative Science
Universiti Teknologi MARA, 40450 Shah Alam, Selangor, Malaysia
Wan Zawiah Wan Zin & Abdul Aziz
Jemain
School of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty
of Science and Technology
Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia,
43600, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia
Diserahkan: 15 Disember 2008 / Diterima:
9 November 2009
ABSTRACT
This study
investigated the spatial pattern and trends of the daily rainfall data in
Peninsular Malaysia based on seasonal rainfall indices. Five rainfall indices
which describe the main characteristics of rainfall, the total amount of
rainfall, frequency of wet days, rainfall intensity, extreme frequency, and
extreme intensity, were employed in this study. The statistics of rainfall
indices were calculated in terms of their means for four regions in Peninsular
Malaysia for the period 1975 to 2004. The findings indicate that the southwest
monsoon had the greatest impact on the western part of the Peninsula,
particularly in characterizing the rainfall pattern of the northwest region.
During this season, the northwest region could be considered as the wettest
region since all rainfall indices tested are higher than in other regions of
the Peninsula. Otherwise, the northwest region is denoted as the driest part of
the Peninsula during the northeast monsoon period. The northwest region is less
influenced by the northeast monsoon because of the existence of the Titiwangsa
Range, which blocks the region from receiving heavy rainfall. On the other
hand, it is found that the lowlands areas such as the eastern part of the
Peninsula are strongly characterized by the northeast monsoonal flow. Based on
the results of the Mann-Kendall test, as the trend of the total amount of
rainfall and the frequency of wet days during the southwest monsoon decrease at
most of the stations, the rainfall intensity increases. In contrast, increasing
trends in both the total amount of rainfall and the frequency of wet days were
observed at several stations during the northeast monsoon, which give rise to
the increasing trend of rainfall intensity. The results for both seasons
indicate that there are significantly decreasing trends in the frequency of wet
days during the extreme events for most of the stations on the peninsula.
However, a smaller number of significant trends was found for extreme
intensity.
Keywords:
Extreme indices; frequency of wet days; Mann-Kendall test; rainfall intensity,
total amount of rainfall
ABSTRAK
Kajian ini
bertujuan menyelidiki pola taburan dan tren hujan di Semenanjung Malaysia
berdasarkan indeks hujan mengikut musim. Lima indeks hujan yang menerangkan
perlakuan hujan, amaun hujan, frekuensi hari basah, kelebatan hujan, frekuensi
hari basah ekstrim dan frekuensi kelebatan ekstrim digunakan dalam kajian ini.
Statistik indeks hujan dihitung berdasarkan nilai purata untuk empat rantau di
Semenanjung Malaysia bagi tahun 1975 hingga 2004. Hasil kajian mendapati bahawa
monsun barat daya mempunyai pengaruh yang besar dalam mempengaruhi pola taburan
hujan di bahagian barat Semenanjung terutamanya rantau Barat Laut. Ketika
monsun barat daya, rantau Barat Laut merupakan rantau yang paling basah kerana
kesemua indeks kajian di rantau ini adalah lebih tinggi dari rantau lain di
Semenanjung Malaysia. Sebaliknya, rantau Barat Laut merupakan rantau yang
paling kering di Semenanjung Malaysia ketika monsun timur laut. Rantau Barat
Laut kurang dipengaruhi oleh angin monsun timur laut disebabkan kehadiran
Banjaran Titiwangsa yang menghalang rantau tersebut dari menerima hujan lebat.
Di samping itu, keputusan turut mendapati bahawa kawasan kaki bukit di Timur Semenanjung
lebih dipengaruhi oleh monsun timur laut. Berdasarkan keputusan ujian
Mann-Kendall, tren amaun hujan dan hari basah di kebanyakan stesen didapati
menurun ketika monsun barat daya seiring dengan peningkatan kelebatan hujan.
Berlainan pula ketika monsun timur laut, di mana tren menaik diperolehi bagi
indeks amaun hujan dan frekuensi hari basah di beberapa stesen, yang turut
menyebabkan peningkatan tren kelebatan hujan. Keputusan kedua-dua monsun juga
menunjukkan penurunan tren secara signifikan berlaku bagi indeks frekuensi hari
basah ekstrim di kebanyakan stesen di Semenanjung. Walau bagaimanapun, hanya
bilangan kecil tren signifikan diperolehi bagi kelebatan melampau.
Kata kunci:
Amaun hujan; frekuensi hari basah; indeks ekstrim; kelebatan hujan; ujian
Mann-Kendall
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*Pengarang untuk surat-menyurat; email: suhaila@mel.fs.utm.my
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